Strategic scenarios of post-war recovery of sustainable development of Poltava region of Ukraine: innovative and environmental aspects

Abstract

The state and strategic scenarios of restoration of sustainable development of Poltava region of Ukraine in the post-war period are studied. To develop a strategic plan for the recovery of the Poltava region, a modern methodology of strategizing (scientific and strategic foresight) is used according to the principle "the future is determined by the trajectory into the future" and three strategic scenarios have been developed until 2027: realistic, optimistic and the scenario of entering the optimal zone of the EU countries, which correspond to the average annual growth rates of real GRP -4.94, -0.72 and 4.1% . The contribution of innovative factors to the economic growth of the region was determined using the modified Cobb-Douglas function and the Solow residual method, which prove the averaged contributions to economic growth: scientific and technological progress STP -3.7; labor 3.1; capital 0.38; production manufacturability 1.57; innovations 0.31%. The strategic dynamics of indicators of innovation and environmental safety on the trajectory of sustainable development are scientifically substantiated and the main threats are identified. The proposed methodology of adaptive response to threats of the environmental subsystem gives possibilities to preserve its stability and balanced sustainable development.